Mariners Fantasy Baseball

2004-06-04T05:59:00.000-07:00

Latest news: Ibanez hurt.
The one hitter actually, well, hitting on the M's is out for at least 2 weeks. Raul IBANEZ injured his hamstring, and will be placed on the 15-day DL. Unfortunately, not only for Ibanez owners, but for any owner of a Mariner hitter. Why? Like I said, there is no one left (with the exception of ICHIRO) is hitting in the lineup. Therefore, Ichiro can expect to be stranded for a while. Oh, in Ibanez's place? Probably a combo of Hiram BOCACHICA and Jolbert CABRERA. Feel the excitement.

Boone, Edgar slumping
Bret BOONE owners (of which I am one) are in a conundrum. Yes, he's finally acting his age, and is mired in a Pat Burrell-esque slump. But who do you put in his place? For example, in my league, the only 2Bs available is Alex Cintron, D'Angelo Jiminez or Marlon Anderson. Not necessarily world beaters. Unfortunately, you may have to resort to the fact that Boone is the best choice among bad players, unless you can swing a deal. Edgar MARTINEZ is down in the .250 range, and showing no power at all. Which is too bad -- I hate to see him flounder like this.

Remember the interleague
Speaking of Edgar, for the 30% of your who own him, interleague play starts next week. Luckily, the M's are home this week, before heading to Milwaukee and Pittsburgh for 6 games between the 15th and 20th. Make your plans to bench him now.

Meche down to AAA.It was inevitable. The struggling Gil MECHE was optioned to AAA. No mention yet of who will replace him in the rotation. Of current players on the roster, my guess is Clint NAGEOTTE. However, don't be surprised to see the M's make another move and grab a AAA starter, like Bobby MADRITCH. It's not necessarily a bad move, however a better move may be to shut Meche down for good. Last season's 180+ innings of work may have been too much (considering he worked less than 150 IP in the previous 3 years), and the signs are showing.

Start of something big?
With Ibanez out, it's almost a certainty that the M's will continue to lose. If that happens, it's time for the management to face reality and start to make wholesale changes. The team needs to be rebuilt from the ground up, and it should have been done slowly over the past 3 years. However, the insistence to rely on players well past their prime in key positions (#3 and #4 hitters, 1B and #1 pitcher), as well as a refusal to trade their bevy of pitching prospects in favor of young hitters, has brought this on.

Expect the management to continue to make more changes. Perhaps dealing/releasing Rich AURILIA in favor of phenom Jose LOPEZ. Benching John OLERUD, moving Scott SPIEZIO to first and bringing up Justin LEONE. Trading Freddy GARCIA, Bret BOONE and Eddie GUARDADO for prospects. Anything is possible...stay tuned.

2004-05-29T14:30:00.000-07:00

The Quinton McCracken era officially ends.
Yup, you heard correctly. The M's great experiment with Quinton McCRACKEN ended last week when they designated him for assignment. To replace him, Seattle called up pitching phenom Clint NAGEOTTE. He will remain in the bullpen for now. However, this won't be the last move for the M's. They are now carrying 12 pitchers, and only 3 outfielders. So expect a move this week -- perhaps calling up Jamal STRONG from AAA and sending down a pitcher like J.J. PUTZ or even Gil MECHE. Speaking of Gil.....
Unfortunately, like almost everyone else on this roster, Meche has failed to perform up to expectations. He's been the weak link in the rotation, and has even been rumored to get traded (a mistake, in my opinion). A more likely scenario would be a move to AAA or the bullpen to sort things out. Replacing him in the rotation is likely to be Nageotte, despite what the management is telling the papers. You should likely drop Meche (if you haven't already) and keep an eye on Nageotte. He's the M's top pitching prospect, and may not be 100% ready for the rotation, but he's good enough to stick.

Other pitching news.....
Despite the snide emails I have recieved regarding Joel PINEIRO's outing against Boston, I still say to grab him. His strikeouts are going up, and has suffered through one bad inning in the month of May. Of course, he doesn't have the wins to show for it, but his ERA has dropped more than 2 points since the start of May. Freddy GARCIA keeps plugging away, as does Jamie MOYER. And in case you haven't noticed, Eddie GUARDADO, (when he gets in games) is blowing people away.

What's next?
Local media reports that wholesale changes are on the way. Perhaps the M's are waiting until they get back to Seattle to make them, making it easier to grab players from their nearby AAA affiliate, Tacoma, or the team's day off (Thursday). However, despite showing signs of life, Rich AURILIA may be in his last days as a Mariner. John OLERUD may also be on the way out, or at least on the bench.

2004-05-24T18:30:00.000-07:00

The wheels are officially off.
Any hopes of the M's making a dramatic comeback in the AL West were effectively dashed after going 4-11 over the past 15 games. Ouch. So what happens with a team this bad, obviously going nowhere, and chock full of veterans? you guessed it: complete overhaul. Recent news reports say that ICHIRO is the only untouchable on that team. While that may be an exaggeration, it's obvious that this team is looking to get younger, and fast. So what does that mean for you?

Not long for the M's starting lineup:
First is Rich AURILIA. If you've still got him on your roster, you are either asleep or have been on vacation for the last month. For the 21% of you who still own him, be aware: He may be traded or even released by June 1. In his place? Expect Jolbert CABRERA to move into the full-time shortstop spot. Other candidates include the immortal Hiram BOCACHICA, who (believe it or not) is tearing up AAA. A long shot is 20-year old superstar-in-the-making Jose LOPEZ. However, that's a longshot, since he's not on the 40-man roster, and has been recently playing 3B.

Second, John OLERUD (owned by less than 1%) may have stayed a year too long. Not getting it done with the bat, he may also sit. If the M's can't find a 1B through a trade, they may bring up intriguing minor leaguers Bucky JACOBSON or A.J. ZAPP. Or, (more likely), Scott SPIEZIO or Raul IBANEZ moves to first. If Spiezio moves, expect Lopez or Justin LEONE to get the call up. In both cases, don't necessarily pick up the minor leaguers just yet, but keep an eye out for them. Keeper leaguers may want to take a flier on Lopez if/when he is called up. And even the ancient Mariner, Edgar MARTINEZ, may see a reduction in playing time.

Others on the way out....
Again, look at most of the lineup. Most of them may be traded or outright released, including (but not limited to): OF Quinten McCRACKEN; 2B Bret BOONE; OF Randy WINN, Ps Freddy GARCIA, Ryan FRANKLIN, Gil MECHE, Eddie GUARDADO, Mike MYERS and Ron VILLONE...basically, anyone but Ichiro, or Martinez and likely Jamie MOYER. On a tangent...more proof that drafting closers early isn't really a good idea? Guardado was the 75th player selected in ESPN drafts. Danny Graves? 175th. Jose Mesa? 202.5. Matt Herges? 196.6. Happens every year. But that's OK...keep drafting those closers in the 6h and 7th round.

Opportunities abound.
Keep a close eye on this situation. I'd expect to start seeing some roster moves in the next couple of weeks, with players being sent down or released. I'd also expect a couple of minor trades in the works. Either way, by the time the all-star break rolls around, expect a major change in the starting lineup, with even more changes after the trade deadline. The M's will get younger, if not necessarily better, looking ahead for 2006.

This means that some of the M's, especially the pitchers, could have some value, especially if you don't need wins. Jamie MOYER, for example, has settled down with a couple of much better starts. Speaking of, anyone remember Joel PINEIRO? Everyone got off the bandwagon pretty quickly, against my advice. Care to know what his stats are for May? How about a 2.57 ERA with 17 strikeouts. Don't expect 20 wins, but he's apparently back in his groove.

2004-05-16T15:07:00.000-07:00

Breaking news...Meche owners take noteHas Gil MECHE walked his way out of the rotation, at least in the short term? Perhaps. After his last start, a 2/3 inning disaster where he walked 4, allowed 2 hits and 3 runs before being pulled, his status is up in the air. Manager Bob Melvin hasn't said anything, but the patience has worn thin on the hard-throwing righty. His stats aren't terrible on the surface, but he hasn't gone into the 7th inning yet. A career as a long reliver might be his future, which, in a pure baseball sense, may be the best thing for him. Of course, it's terrible news for all you Meche owners.

So who would replace him? Sorry, Rafael SORIANO owners -- he's still on the DL (see below). In fact, it's been hinted that one of the talented minor leaguers lighting it up in AAA will be called up. My money is on Bobby MADRITCH. He was livid when he was sent down after a stellar spring. But instead of pouting, the hard-throwing lefty proved he belongs in Seattle, not Tacoma. With a 3-0 record and a 2.59 ERA to go with 41 Ks and 11 walks in just 42 innings, he's been overpowering. Plus, latest news out of Rainiers camp is that he will be skipped in the rotation. He could be a pleasant surprise in a terrible year. Clint NAGEOTTE could also get the call, but he looks like he needs more work in AAA.

Pick up Piniero -- now.
So, all you Meche owners, who do you replace him with? Don't look now, but Joel PINIERO is starting to heat up. I've been defending him since the beginning of the season, and the impatient have been dropping him faster than fruitcake at Christmas. He's available in 60% of leagues, and gave up a grand total of 3, 2 and 2 earned runs against good hitting teams (MIN and NYY). No, he won't win a lot, but it's not his fault. But he's probably the best pitcher on your waiver wire. And why is everyone ignoring Kenny Rogers? But I digress.

Lost season for Soriano?
Unfortunately, this is starting to look like a lost season for Rafael SORIANO. He has been placed on the DL. Ramon SANTIAGO has been called up to take his place, don't worry about him. Anyway, at this point, it may be time to give up on Soriano for the season. He may be back to form and contribute to your team post all-star break, but I'm afraid that he'll be a wasted roster spot until them.

Trade rumors swirling.
It had to happen. The sharks are starting to swirl, as the usual suspects start to look at potential deals involving the M's. Seattle has talent that veteran teams covet. First and foremost, Freddy GARCIA (who is having a great season, if you haven't noticed). Also, Bret BOONE, Ryan FRANKLIN and even Eddie GUARDADO could be dealt in the next couple months. The dumbest trade rumor I've heard in several years was a three-way involving K.C. and Boston. Basically, Boston would recieve Carlos Beltran, K.C. gets Garcia and a minor leaguer while Seattle gets Johnny Damon and B.K. Kim.

Sounds more like wisful thinking from the Boston contingent than anything else, because that trade makes zero sense for the Mariners. A decent, but aging OFer in Damon and the last thing the M's need -- more pitching. Why not just trade for Beltran? That makes more sense. Anyway, expect more deals to pop up over the next few weeks, especially as the Angels pull away and the M's continue to struggle. When and if vets get traded, watch out for the minor leaguers to get a shot. We already mentioned Madritch and Nageotte, but also pitchers Matt THORNTON and Travis BLACKLEY, outfielder Jamal STRONG and 3B Justin LEONE.

2004-05-07T06:03:00.000-07:00

Here we go.....
The M's are playing a little better now that they're out of the AL West. I have focused on the M's pitching problems over the past couple of weeks, so let's talk about the offense.

Starting to heat up -- Ichiro.
Contrary to popular opinion, ICHIRO isn't a second-or-third round pick. But for those that took him there, good news -- he's started to pick his game back up. Currently leading the team in average (.285), he's been hitting well over .350 during the DET and MIN series, and he's stealing bases. Will he be an MVP candidate? Unlikely. Will he round out your average, runs and SB categories? Absolutely.

I was wrong about Raul
OK, at the beginning of the season, I thought that signing Raul IBANEZ was a hige mistake. Going from one of the best hitter's parks in KC to one of the worst in Seattle was bound to hurt his stats. Add to the fact he's on the wrong side of 30, and he had "bust" written all over him...or so I thought. Now that he leads the M's in HR (6), R (19), and second in RBI, congrats to those who didn't take my advice.

Disappointing starts
First and foremost, Bret BOONE may be showing signs of age. Still only at .250, that looks bad. However, he also has 6 homers and 18 RBI, and is still a top-3 1B. Plus, he's a notorious slow starter. So I'd try and swing a trade if you can. If you've got Boonie, I wouldn't worry. However, Randy WINN has become one of the most dropped players in ESPN. And I don't blame you on that one. Hitting just .232 with a couple SBs and 13 runs, his start isn't pretty. If there are better options, take them.

Speaking of bad starts.....
For some strange reason, I'm still holding on to the belief that JOEL PINIERO isn't this bad...is he? After 6 starts, he's posted a 7.60 ERA and just one win. Perhaps he and Freddy GARCIA pulled a "Freaky Friday," since Freddy has been untouchable this season. Anyway, back to Piniero: Drp him if you must, but if you can, keep him on your bench and wait another 2 or 3 starts. If he shows no signs of turning it around by the end of May, I'd probably let him go.

2004-04-29T14:46:00.000-07:00

Good news....
First, Rafael SORIANO is wrapping up his minor league rehab stint. He's hitting the mid-90s on his fastball, and is scheduled to make one more start before being ready to re-join the club on May 4. If anyone in your league dropped him, now's the time to grab him. Second, Kevin JARVIS was "designated for assignment." Basically, he'll be released and the M's eat his $4.5+ million salary. In his place will be J.J. PUTZ, who will be a long reliever. He shouldn't be on your radar, but Putz has the stuff to stick with the big club for good.

Another start, another shelling for Joel Pineiro
It hasn't been pretty for Joel PINEIRO so far. In fact, he's being dropped left and right. With an ERA hovering around 9.00, I don't blame you. But here's a better option: Patience. Remember, this is just April. Derek Jeter, Mike Mussina, Jim Thome, Greg Maddux and Juan Pierre, among others, are also struggling. June is a long way away, and I'd wager that Pineiro, as well as the others in this list, will be a lot better down the stretch.

Why do I think that? A couple of reasons. First, in his past two starts, he's had a k/bb ratio of 6:1. Secondly, his career path indicates he's a better pitcher than this. Yes, reports indicate that he's lost 5 mph off his fastball, which is troubling. But the signs are there that he can rebound. So here's my suggestion: bench him. It makes no sense to have a bunch of hitters plugging up your bench. So why have a Bobby Higginson-type wasting space when you could have a potentially dominant pitcher on your roster? Again, patience is a virtue, especially in April.

Another cause for concern?
It's not surprising to see owners jump off the Rich AURILIA bandwagon. He's a player that, despite his hot start, shouldn't be on your roster anyway. Randy WINN, on the other hand, should be. Yes, he's struggling mightily at the plate, but through his career, he's shown that he has 90 run/75 RBI/25 SB potential -- the perfect 3rd or 4th outfielder. Yes, a .210 average isn't pretty. But instead of dropping him to chase the flavor of the week, bench him if you must.

Finally, some good news.
As you may have noticed, I don't put much stock into April stats. But Raul IBANEZ has been pleasantly solid. 4 homers, 10 RBI and 15 runs is great for your third/fourth outfielder spot. Ride the wave where it takes you. Edgar MARTINEZ is steadily producing. Bret BOONE is also showing signs of breaking out. The average isn't there, but the power is. ICHIRO is producing just like a second or third outfielder should. You didn't draft him in the second round, right?

2004-04-23T19:58:00.000-07:00

Coming out of the AL West....
The schedule makers certainly weren't kind to the Mariners in April. Of course, it's not entirely their fault, but playing the Angels and Rangers for 12 games will kill your pitching, and 7 games against the A's aren't fun for the hitters. Fortunately, the M's get out of the West and move into more interesting territory. This week, it's Baltimore and Detroit. Still not helping the pitchers any, but the bats should improve.

Cause for concern -- Joel Pinerio?
3 games. 1-1. 16 innings pitched. ERA hovering around 8. Concerned? Absolutely. Drop him? Not yet. However, I'd bench Joel PINERIO until he gets his act together. He's capable of rattling off 8 wins in a row, so be patient. Jamie MOYER and Gil MECHE are also having slow starts. It's still too early to tell if Moyer is finally showing his age and Meche was a fluke. I'd lean toward saying "yes" to the former and "no" to the latter. In any case, I'd sit them against Baltimore, and start them in Detroit.

Steal of the draft?
I thought Freddy GARCIA would be better this year, but I wasn't expecting this. Despite having a 0-0 record in his 3 starts, he has a 2.25 ERA with 18 Ks in 20 IP. I don't know how long this will last, but run with it for now. Ryan FRANKLIN has a nice era -- 3.15, but he doesn't strike out many, and won't win a lot of games. Still, if you're like me and have a couple starters injured, he's a great spot starter or temporary replacement on your team.

The Sparkplug!
Back when I was in high school, the Yankees traded the M's Jay Buhner for the immortal Ken Phelps. "Seinfeld" fans may remember the name, but it goes down as one of the best trades in history. Not only was Buhner a power presence for several years in that lineup, but he was the sparkplug. He was the emotional leader. Ken Griffey Jr. may have been the highlight of the M's back then, but "Bone" was the team's heart and soul. So why do I bring him up? Scott SPEZIO.

You look at Spezio's career stats, and you don't see a lot. He looks like an above average corner infielder. But he's brought life into the M's batting order. In the 6 games he's been in the lineup, the M's are 4-2. Previously, they were 2-8. What does that mean for your fantasy team? If you're in need of a corner infielder, Spezio's a great pickup -- epecially in AL only leagues. He'll start at third for the time being. And over the past couple of weeks, he and the rest of the M's get to play against Baltimore, Detroit and Minnesota. Certainly no slouches, but they also don't have Mulder, Zito and Hudson.

Also on a tear
Raul IBANEZ should be in your starting lineup for the time being. He's also on fire, leading the team in runs scored (12), and tied for the lead in HR (4) and RBI (9). Certainly not Scott Rolen-esque, but take what you can get for now. And if you've got Bret BOONE, Edgar MARTINEZ or Rich AURILIA, take heart -- they should rebound. Randy WINN should as well. But John OLERUD should not be on your team. I hate to say it, but he's been moved down to 7th in the order, and will probably lose playing time to Dave HANSEN. Unless you're desperate for 1B or in a deep, deep AL-only league, Olerud should be in the free agent heap. I'm talking to you, the 1.1% who still own him....

Obligatory Soriano Note.
Unless I put this in, I'm afraid I'll get about 150 emails about him, so here goes: Rafael SORIANO is still making some starts in the minors. Rain delays have been a bigger problem than his command. Patience. You didn't draft him to win 20 games, right? He'll be fine when it counts -- down the stretch.

2004-04-16T07:41:00.000-07:00

News of the day
Time to panic? Rafael SORIANO was sent to the minors for more conditioning. Don't worry, he won't be there for long. Because he suffered a muscle strain at the beginning of spring training, Soriano didn't get the work needed to get ready for the regular season. The result, much to the chagrin of Soriano owners, is that he got shelled. Give him a couple of weeks, and he'll be back into the lineup. If you've got the room, obviously bench him. But depending on your team, you may have to take the risk of dropping him. But don't blame me if he comes back on a tear!

More injury news
Scott SPEZIO is beginning his rehab this week. Expect him in the next few weeks. That's good news for the Mariners as a whole. However, unless you need some bench help or are in an AL-only leagues, it shouldn't help much. Eddie GUARDADO is back and will be closing games...that is, if the M's are actually winning in the 9th inning.

More good news
The paltry win total aside, some key M's are starting to hit. ICHIRO is hitting a cool .350. Bret BOONE has 3 homers. Rich AURILIA is hittong over .300 with 5 doubles and 7 RBI. And despite hitting .250, Randy WINN is leading the club with 7 runs scored.

And now the bad.....
Let's talk Joel PINERIO. 2 starts. 9 IP. 11.17 ERA. That's not pretty, and a lot of people are asking me if they should drop him. Patience, friends, patience. If two starts made a season, you'd also drop Mike Mussina, right? Fact is, Pinerio isn't the only one suffering over the past two starts. And considering this is a guy with 16-18 win talent, who would you pick up with that potential off the FA wire? If he's still got a 7.00 ERA in June, then we'll talk.

Other pitchers
Again, it's too early to spot trends, but Gil MECHE's performance is encouraging. In 6.2 IP, 5 Ks and a 2.70 ERA, and despite taking the loss, those are nice starts. Now, Freddy GARCIA. A 3.46 ERA isn't great, but 11 Ks and just one HR allowed in two starts is good. I'd still preach caution with Freddy, but if this keeps up, he could be the steal of the draft

2004-04-08T16:04:00.000-07:00

Let's play ball!
Most of your drafts are probably done. And the M's are looking to get things underway this season. And the dulcet sounds of Dave Niehaus and the train whistle is coming through my radio. It's good to have basball back. M's fans would have liked the season to start off on a better note, but it could be worse: You could have Mike Mussina on your fantasy team.

Injuries and such.
The big opening day injury is Scott SPEZIO. It was originally speculated that he could be out for months. However, it looks like he'll back in the lineup by May. Spezio has some value in AL-only leagues, but he hits like a shortstop in a power position (3B, 1B). As for now, his replacement is Willie BLOOMQUIST, who shouldn't be on your radar, even if you're the most die-hard M's fan. Eddie GUARDADO was experiencing "stiffness" out of training camp. It shouldn't be any concern, and will still wind up closing games, despite being shut down for a couple days. Meanwhile, I'd pick up Shiggy HASEGAWA as insurance.

Who's hot
OK, it's only the third game of the season. But Freddy GARCIA was magnificent in hist first start -- no runs, 4 hits and 7 strikeouts in 7 innings of work. If he keeps it up, those who drafted him as their 4th pitcher may get a steal. With the bat, it's Rich AURILIA (4 RBI as of this posting), Raul IBANEZ (.286) and...drum roll...Dan WILSON (.500 with 4 hits in 8 abs). Of course, this means next to nothing, but of Aurilia and Ibanez can stave off the curse of Safeco, their value will be much needed in the M's lineup.

Who's not
On the mound, both Joel PINEIRO and Jamie MOYER got hammered by the potent Angels offense. Vlad Guerrero, Garrett Anderson and Try Glaus can make most pitchers look bad, so it's not that worrisome. Again, if they're doing it in late May, it's panic time. Sporting an even 12.00 ERA, Kevin JARVIS is looking like this year's incarnation of Giovanni Cararra. M's fans can hope that management does the same thing to Jarvis as they did Cararra, allowing one of the talented youngsters in AAA some deserved playing time.

With the bats, it's amazing that a team that scored 13 runs in 3 games has their most important hitters (Edgar MARTINEZ, Bret BOONE and ICHIRO) under .250. While Boone has the team's lone homer, he also leads the M's in strikeouts (5).

Jolbert Cabrera a Mariner
Yes, you read that correctly. The mighty Jolbert CABRERA was traded from the Dodgers to the M's just before the season started. He's only a viable player if an injury happens...now. Believe it or not, Cabrera is the M's best player off the bench, and can play several positions. Sure, he's no Mark McLEMORE-circa 2001, but he could be useful in AL-only leagues. Wait and see how Bob Melvin uses him.

2004-04-01T12:36:00.000-08:00

Question of the week
After recieving about 15 emails about this, let me just say this: Yes, Eddie GUARDADO will close, and should once again approach 35+ saves. No, Rafael SORIANO won't close, unless there are some significant injuries in the bullpen. Soriano is a better bet to start. And even if he spends the season in middle relief, an Octavio Dotel-circa 2003 isn't out of the question. That will certainly help you mask some of your weaker pitchers. Put it another way: Soriano is a good player to have regardless of where he is.

Can expect to improve -- pitchers
It's not like Joel PINEIRO was terrible last year (except for August), but he should be a lot more consistent this year. No, he'll probably never be a Cy Young contender, but 180+ Ks, an era in the mid 3s and 16-20 wins isn't bad. He's easily the most valuable Mariner starter. Freddy GARCIA should also improve. Of course, he can't be much worse. Don't draft him too early, but 15 wins and an era in the high 3s with 150ks isn't out of the question.

Can expect to improve -- hitters
This is a tough one, since "improve" is a relative term. John OLERUD can't be as bad as last season, but he's a long way removed from his flirtation with .400, and has lost his power, which is the death knell for any fantasy player. At 1B, you're sunk if you don't draft a masher like Delgado/Giambi/Bagwell. Even with an average over .280 and 15-20 HRs, Olerud should only be taken in AL-only or really deep leagues. The other improvement will be at third, which also creates a quandary. 3B is a lot deeper than it has been recently, so even with Scott SPEZIO's 20 homers and 80 RBI, there are better options. Still, not a bad choice for a util spot or the dreaded 1B/3B position.

Can expect to be worse -- pitchers
It begins and ends with Ryan FRANKLIN. Yes, he had a top 10 ERA. But he also allowed the most homers in the majors, and is a flyball pitcher. Without the second best CF glove in the majors (Mike CAMERON) behind him, expect that ERA to shoot up to around 5.00. It wouldn't surprise me to see him bumped from the rotation for Soriano sooner than later.

Can expect to be worse -- hitters
Sorry Edgar MARTINEZ. I love ya, and think you deserve a spot in Cooperstown, but you can't keep it up forever...can you? Still, you could do worse in your util spot than a .300 average and 20 homers. But if you do draft Edgar, make sure you've got other options. Those legs won't hold up for 150 games, and he also sits at NL parks. Raul IBANEZ's return to Seattle may not be as joyus as the M's hope. Yes, he's a much needed lefty bat, but a repeat of his numbers in KC is a bit optimistic. .260 with 20 homers would be great. Same goes for Rich AURILIA.

Probable Starters
April 6, J. Moyer vs. ANA (Colon)
April 7, J. Pineiro vs. ANA
April 8, F. Garcia vs. ANA
April 9, G. Meche @ OAK
April 10, R. Franklin @ OAK

2004-03-26T06:05:00.000-08:00

Some news and notes as the M's wind down spring training:
*Joel PINEIRO got hit with a line drive, but has showed no problems since.
*Rafael SORIANO, after missing most of ST with a muscle strain, is back and throwing.
*Ben DAVIS may not make the team. His poor judgement, lack of power, and plain boneheaded plays may get him a ticket to Tacoma to start the season.

Otherwise, the only position battles have been on the bench and in the bullpen -- no consequence to fantasy players. So in the meantime, let's take a look at the season, and how you should plan.

Out of the gate
The M's kick off their season with perhaps the most improved team in the AL -- the Angels. While people fawn over the Yankees and Red Sox, Anaheim has quietly compiled a team that can compete for the world series once again. With 6 games against Anaheim, 7 with Oakland, 4 against the much-improved Orioles and 6 with Texas, April is a brutal month. Don't be surprised if your M's pitchers start slow. May is a little easier, with series against Minnesota, Detroit and Cleveland. However, 3 games with Baltimore and Boston, as well as 6 with the Yankees loom.

June: a breather
The schedule gets a lot easier as summer moves in. It also marks the start of interleague play, so remember to bench Edgar MARTINEZ. Houston, Montreal, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, St. Louis and San Diego are on this year's NL slate. The M's also play 2 series with Texas, and 3 games with the White Sox. Heading into the all-star break should be fairly easy as well, with the Cards, Blue Jays and White Sox on tap.

The All-Star Break
The 3 day all-star break, to paraphrase women's magazines, is a time to relax, reflect and take a look ahead to your team's future. If you're in a keeper league, you should decide whether you'll be a contender this year, or if you need to build for the future. Single-season owners need to determine their teams strengths/weakenesses and deal thusly. If you are indeed in contention for the title, you need to act more like Billy Beane and less like Pat Gillick -- make your team better through deals.

It's best not to wait until the deadline. If you do, other teams will be trying to get that star player, and you may very well miss the deadline, since (*gasp*) some of your other owners may not get back to you in time! Also, look for players who tend to heat up after the break. Unfortunately, with such an old team, only Randy WINN tends to heat up in the second half of the season. Ryan FRANKLIN and even Freddy GARCIA turned in solid second halves last year. Looking to get rid of players? Gil MECHE would top my list. ICHIRO and even Bret BOONE tend to tail off as well, so you may want to sell high and reap the rewards.

The second half
After the all-star break, it's also vital to pay attention to trade rumors. A trade to a bad hitter's park can kill your big stud hitter's value, while a pitcher dealt to Coors will do the same for your ERA. The M's are one of those teams looking to get into the mix this season, so be aware of what comes up. July ends tough, with ANA, OAK and BOS to wind down the month. August is when the M's hit their swoon, but with TB, MIN, DET in the mix with NYY and KC, the schedule makers were fairly kind.

Winding down
Hopefully, by September, the M's will be in the pennant chase. And after wrapping up season series with the AL East, the AL West comes calling once again. It'll be up to the deadline deals and injuries whether Seattle will be playing in October. This team could look quite different by then. In any case, it'll be an interesting year.

2004-03-18T05:01:00.000-08:00

Counting down the days.....
As the Mariners send the youngsters back down to AAA and the starters are getting more innings, we know that Spring training is winding down. As expected, the front office is looking for an additional bat or two, with names like Jason Kendall, Ellis Burks and prodigal son Ken Griffey, Jr. being bandied about. If/when something does develop, I'll let you know my takes.

Who's getting taken?
Some surprises here. According to today's (3/17) ESPN rankings, the Mariners being taken by fantasy players in major league drafts include: Bret BOONE (16th overall); ICHIRO (22); Eddie GUARDADO (69); Randy WINN (125); Jamie MOYER (128); Joel PINEIRO (132); Freddy GARCIA (162); Rich AURILIA (167); Rafael SORIANO (180); Edgar MARTINEZ (194); Raul IBANEZ (200) and Gil MECHE (240).

Overrated
I'll probably get some hate mail on this, but Ichiro should not be taken in the second round. Don't get me wrong, I love his game. But there are a lot of outfielders out there, and to take Ichiro over players like Carlos Delgado, Kerry Wood, Eric Chavez or Jason Schmidt doesn't make a lot of sense. To put it bluntly, you are trying to build a team around your second rounder. Ichiro rounds out your team nicely, but he's not in that league. Also, taking a closer like Guardado in the 6th or 7th round makes no sense. Yes, Eddie could easily get 40 saves. But he'll only help you in one stat. Skip this pick, and feast on the Danny Kolb and Joe Nathans in the later rounds. Rich Aurilia also doesn't deserve to be on your team, especially at 167.

Underrated
Luckily, there are quite a few here. Jamie Moyer sticks out for me. Yes, he's 41. But he relies on deception. not power, and his stats over the past three years have been very consistent. Put it another way: He put up better stats last year than Greg Maddux, but is being taken two rounds later. A steal at 128. Another steal is Pineiro at 132. Remember, he's only 25, and is playing in the best pitcher's park in the AL. Best case scenario, Pinerio breaks out to a Kerry Wood-esque level. Worst-case (barring injury), he's a great 2nd or 3rd starter.

Potential sleepers
OK, no real "sleepers" here, since it's a veteran-heavy team. But there are a few potential high risk/reward players that are being missed. Edgar Martinez will give you a .300 average, some power, RBI and runs -- when healthy. He'll produce, but make sure you've got another solid backup on the bench, since Edgar will get hurt sometime this season. Freddy Garcia has had a terrible record since the 2002 All-Star break. But he's had offseason surgery, and appears to be in great shape. He's worth a look. Of course, there's also Rafael Soriano, who is primed to move into the rotation should someone (Ryan FRANKLIN?) falter. But considering him a sleeper is a relative term on this team. Everyone seems to know about him.

Undrafted options
As it stands, Franklin isn't being taken in drafts. But he's not a bad option for an injury replacement/spot starter role. With a top-10 ERA, but a bad record, there are worse options out there. Also, Scott SPEZIO could be a decent replacement for your starter at third. No power, but some nice average and runs scored numbers. And at a weak position (3B), that's not too bad.

2004-03-11T18:24:00.000-08:00

Sorry this is late, but you'd be surprised how much time a newborn takes! Meanwhile, every parent reading this is laughing at me....but I digress. Not much new in spring training. In fact, the only drama is filling out the bench. And when we're talking about a battle between Hiram BOCACHICA, Eric OWENS and Quinton McCRACKEN, well...let's be polite and not say anything. In the meantime, it's time for the infielders. Next week, we'll take a look at the upcoming season.

Overview
Unlike the pitching staff and outfield, the infield does have one player that you can build a team around: Brett BOONE. The rest include a bunch of aging role players who compliment each other fairly well, but fantasy owners would be hard pressed to justify their existence on their rosters.

Last hurrah? John OLERUD
(2003 stats: .268 AVG, 64 R, 10 HR, 83 RBI, 0 SB)
Remember when he almost hit .400? Yeah, those were good days. So were the days when he could be depended on to hit around .300 with 20 homers and 100 RBI, making him a nice choice for a backup 1B. But those days are long gone. Olerud can't hit lefties, and at age 35, this is expected to be his last year, at least in Seattle. ESPN has him as the 25th best 1B available, but I think that's even a bit high. Carlos Pena, Brad Fullmer and even Doug Mientkiewicz are better options at this point.

The big bat: Bret BOONE
(2003 stats: .294 AVG, 111 R, 35 HR, 117 RBI, 16 SB)
Obviously, Boone is the power behind the Mariners offense, and even at 35, shows no signs of slowing down. His stats over the past 3 years are great for a 1B and an OF, but considering he's a 2B, that makes him even more valuable. He'll still be a step behind Alfonso Soriano (especially if he stays in Texas), but Boone is a nice second round pick. Having him on your roster allows you to pick up a pure speed OF, like Crawford or Pierre, since Boone's power comes from a position lacking in such.

The other half: Rich AURILIA and Scott SPEZIO
(Aurilia's 2003 stats in SF: .277 AVG, 65 R, 13 HR, 58 RBI, 2 SB)
(Spezio's 2003 stats in ANA: .265 AVG, 69 R, 16 HR, 83 RBI, 6 SB)
Two more of GM Bill Bavasi's offseason acquisitions. Aurilia was the booby prize for being the runner-up in the Miguel Tejada sweepstakes, and Spezio replaces the slumptacular Jeff Cirillo at third. Both are adequate, but nothing to write home about. Expect similar stats in Safeco to what they put up in San Fran and Anaheim, respectively. As you may expect, they're fine in AL-only leagues or on your bench, but you really wouldn't want them starting for you consistently.

Backstop platoon: Dan WILSON and Ben DAVIS
(Wilson's 2003 stats: .241 AVG, 32 R, 4 HR, 43 RBI, 0 SB)
(Davis' 2003 stats: .236 AVG, 25 R, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 0 SB)
After 10 years manning the plate for the Mariners, this truly looks like Wilson's last hurrah. One of the great Mariner workhorses over the last decade, the plan is finally to cede his starting role to Davis this year, allowing Wilson to retire. Davis will almost definitely see more playing time this year. However, he has already been criticized publicly by Bob Melvin for his game calling, so Wilson may get some significant time as well. Either way, this is a situation best avoided. Even at catcher, there are better players out there.

The other Ancient Mariner: Edgar MARTINEZ
(Martinez's 2003 stats: .294 AVG, 72 R, 24 HR, 98 RBI, 0 SB)
Like Barry Larkin and the Reds, Edgar is one of the few current major leaguers that's expected to retire for the team that drafted him. And it's a lock that Edgar will join former teammates Alvin Davis and Jay Buhner in the Mariner hall of fame. He's a close call for Cooperstown, but will probably stay out thanks to people who like to vote on the way they think baseball ought to be rather than what it is. But I digress. Even at 41 years old, Edgar will still produce. But he won't produce for 150 or maybe even 100 games. So if you do draft him, make sure you've got a solid backup on the bench. His legs could go any day, but he still swings a potent bat.

2004-03-03T07:45:00.000-08:00

A full week of spring training
The bad news so far? Chris SNELLING and Rafael SORIANO have been hurt already. The good news? No Mariner has been accused of taking steroids (yet). Between taking care of a newborn and preparing for my own fantasy draft, I'll keep you abreast of any developing situation before opening day. In the meantime, I've taken a look at the M's pitching staff. Now, time for the outfielders. Next week, check back for a look at the infield.

Overview
Like the pitching staff, the outfield corps doesn't really have a fantasy superstar. Yes, there's ICHIRO, but he hasn't shown the stats you'd like to build a team around. Gone is Mike CAMERON. In his place, Randy WINN moves from left to center, and Raul IBANEZ comes from Kansas City to man left field.

Steady in right: Ichiro
(2003 stats: .312 AVG, 111 R, 13 HR, 62 RBI, 34 SB)
After a stellar rookie season, Ichiro's stats have tailed off. Yes, he will once again be amongst the league leaders in average and stolen bases, and is a lock for 110 runs. But Juan PIERRE, Carl CRAWFORD and maybe even Scott PODSEDNIK will likely do the same, while being taken a lot lower in the draft. I don't mean to belittle Ichiro's stats -- he is the Mariners catalyst, and with a better lineup behind him, should improve. Just don't worry if someone else takes him. There are players just as good out there.

**Caveat: There has been talk of Ichiro moving to #3 in the batting order. If that happens, adjust the RBIs up and the SBs down.

The new, old guy: Raul Ibanez
(2003 stats with KC: .307 AVG, 95 R, 18 HR, 90 RBI, 8 SB)
The first "big" acquisition of the Bavasi era, Ibanez comes back to the Mariner organization after spending several years in Lou Piniella's doghouse. During his first stint with the M's, Ibanez posted huge numbers in AAA, but couldn't hack it in the majors. After 3 years with the Royals, Ibanez has started to come into his own. However, he is 31 years old, and is moving to the worst hitters park in the game. He'll probably hit 5th or 6th, which means his RBI numbers should be fine, but expect a drop off in homers and average. Ibanez is a fine #3 or #4 outfielder, but that's it.

Replacing Cammy: Randy Winn
(2003 stats: .295 AVG, 103 R, 11 HR, 75 RBI, 23 SB)
Quick...who had the better season last year for 5x5 fantasy baseball players: Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Brian Giles or Randy Winn? Obviously, it was Winn. He's been taken in the 13th round so far, and could be a nice sleeper. As you can see from his stats, he won't single-handedly win any category for you, but give you nice numbers in 4 categories. He's the perfect 3rd outfielder. Plus, he's still 29, and may hit lower in the order this season, giving him some more RBI opportunities.

Off the bench, and trade rumors
Anyone looking for the next Mark McLEMORE super-sub needs to look elsewhere. The Mariners bench is arguably the worst in the majors. Quinton McCRACKEN is the only recognizable name here. Hiram BOCACHICA and Eric OWENS have also been invited to spring training. Don't bother.

During the offeseason, the M's had been thinking about making a trade, for a big bat like Carlos BELTRAN or Magglio ORDONEZ. Don't look for it to happen by the end of spring training, but it may happen come the trade deadline. The team still needs some more bats. And they have starting pitching (like Freddy GARCIA) to give. Plus, they have some extra money left over from Kaz SASAKI's voided contract. If the Mariners are in contention, but are lacking in offense, look for a trade.

Other names to know
As mentioned above, Chris SNELLING is injured...again. He's the top position prospect in the M's farm system, and if his stress fracture recovers like it should, he has a legit shot at making the team. He's a top prospect, and if an injury besets one of the starters, look for Snelling to take over. Jamal STRONG also may wind up with the team. He's a spot starter, but nothing more. Sin-soo-CHOO is also in camp as a non-roster invitee, but he's at least a couple years away. Keep an eye on him and Snelling if you're in a keeper league.

2004-02-25T03:59:00.000-08:00

Spring training starts
The start of the Cactus league was highlighted by lots of rain in usually sunny Arizona. Hopefully, this is not an indicator of the M's fortunes during the year. During spring training, I'll keep you up to date on any Mariner news, as well as profiling the key players you need to watch as your draft day approaches. This week: relievers. Next week, check back for a look at the outfield.

Bullpen Preview
Like the starters, there are no really big names here. And with Kaz SASAKI, Arthur RHODES and Jeff NELSON gone, the Mariners break camp with a much different bullpen than this time last year. However, that's not necessarily a bad thing -- as Sasaki owners can attest. Kaz, Rhodes and Nelson had poor years. But smart owners were able to pick up cheap saves and wins from the amazingly effective Shigetosi HASEGAWA. We also saw the next Mariner phenom Rafael SORIANO blossom. And Julio MATEO came out of nowhere to become a a solid reliever, posting better numbers than the highly touted Rhodes. This year, that trio, plus a couple others, will be keys to the season. The bullpen is definitely the M's strength once again.

The New Closer: Eddie Guardado
The biggest change for fantasy owners is the new closer: Eddie GUARDADO. Originally signed as a lefty to replace Rhodes, Sasaki's departure puts the 9th inning in the hands of the former Twins closer. Is he reliable? Well, they don't call him "Everyday" for nothing. In the past two years, he's had more saves than Keith Foulke, Mariano Rivera or Troy Percival. He's been the 21st pitcher taken in drafts so far.

While I think that's way too high for any reliever, 35-40 saves is not out of the question. He doesn't throw smoke, but gets the job done. Plus, he's moving from one of the best hitter's parks in Minnesota to one of the best pitcher's parks in Seattle, which can only help.

Phenom in waiting: Rafael Soriano
Fantasy owners drooled over Soriano's potential last year. And if I had a dollar for every Soriano question I recieved last year, I would be somewhere with palm trees right now! There's a reason to be excited. Throwing strictly from the 'pen, Soriano racked up and amazing 68 strikeouts (in 53 innings), and a 1.53 ERA. Rafael is Seattle's version of K-Rod, and with Guardado in the closer's role, the Mariners want to groom him as a starter. He will get the ball if one of the starting 5 goes down or is traded. Remember, he's only 24, and could wind up as the M's best starter in 3 years.

However, as luck would have it, he strained a side muscle and will be out at least a month. At least he injured himself at the start of spring training, not the end. But, these strains can linger, so be aware, especially at the start of the season. He may start slow, but if Soriano is healthy by the all-star break, he's definitely worth a spot on your roster.

Getting Shiggy with it
I apologize for that title. Cliches aside, Hasegawa cut down on his strikeouts, but had an amazing ERA of 1.48. Most of the season, it was below one. He also found himself closing games after Rhodes (are you paying attention, A's?) and Nelson couldn't hack it in the 9th. He converted 16 saves in 17 chances. These numbers were an anomaly, so don't expect it again. He's only draftable in AL leagues. However...There is an outside shot he could close. Highly unlikely, but stranger things have happened. If that is the case, his value skyrockets.

Other names to know
Mateo may be worth a flier late. He'll compliment Soriano in the long relief role, and could also start a couple games. He quietly put up solid numbers, and would definitely help a team in AL-only leagues. Upgrade him if/when Soriano moves into the rotation. Clint NAGEOTTE, Rhett JOHNSON and Travis BLACKLEY aren't worth drafting yet, but have outside shots to earn a position in the pen. If you're in a keeper league, check out how they do, since they are the future. Kevin JARVIS, Ron VILLONE, Mike MYERS and Terry MULHOLLAND are names you'll recognize that are fighting for a spot on the team. As you may expect, don't even bother.

2004-02-18T04:04:00.000-08:00

Mostly, this space is an archive for my fantasy baseball columns on ESPN.com. However, how could I be a baseball fan, especially a Mariner fan, and not comment on the Alex Rodriguez trade?

First, there are many people in the Pacific Northwest who can't stand ARod. I'm not one of them. He was the only one of "the big 3" (Randy Johnson and Ken Griffey) to play through his contract, instead of demanding a trade. Unlike RJ or Griffey, Arod gave 100% every time he put on the Mariner uniform. He didn't complain, he didn't whine about Safeco. He didn't force the M's to trade him to his hometown team. In short, he completed the obligations of his contract and then played the free agent market, which was his right. Sure, he was a little smarmy and two-faced when he eventually signed with the Rangers, but that's the game he had to play -- pretend like everyone was interested, and everyone could sign him, including Seattle.

There are some out there who are complaining that the trade will "ruin" baseball. There are some out there who think that George Steinbrenner is "cheating." While I think he's trying to buy a championship, I also think it's certainly within his right. I also think the Yankees are sacrificing the long-term games in order to win now. Over the past few seasons, Steinbrenner has gutted his minor league system. At the start of the 2002, it was still one of the best in the majors. At the start of spring training, it is widely regarded as the worst. Now that Alfonso Soriano is a Ranger, there are only two regulars under 30 (Arod and Javier Vazquez), and the last starters to come from the Yankee system were Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada (1995).

So what? After all, Steinbrenner has the money to buy any free agent he wants. He could close down the whole farm system and just take the best players from Milwaukee or Pittsburgh every year. This may be true, but as we all know, pennants are won and lost not in January. They are won in July.

Mariner fans know the frustration of sitting in first at the all-star break, then watching the A's or Angels make a key move at the deadline while the M's stand pat (pun intended). That key player or players enable Seattle's rivals to win in August, while the Mariners fade away. Yankee fans, get ready for this reality.

As it stands, the Yankees go into the season with Kevin Brown (age 39), John Lieber (34), Mike Mussina (35), Jose Contreras (allegedly 32) and Vazquez (28). Of those, Brown and Lieber have a history of injuries, Mussina is no spring chicken, and Contreras didn't show much last season. It is very likely that one of those four will be ineffective or miss significant playing time. Not to mention Giambi, Lofton, Williams and Sheffield are also up there in age.

So let's look ahead to July. The Brewers are 20 games out, and looking again to dump salary and take on some prospects, and are offering Ben Sheets. The Angels and the Yankees are looking for a starting pitcher. With a stocked minor league system, the Angels will be able to offer much more than the Yankees. So could Boston, Oakland, Seattle, and whoever comes out of the Central. I predict this will be a huge problem for the Yankees now, and in the future.

If the Yankees don't win it all, Steinbrenner will likely fire Brian Cashman and Joe Torre. Even with an unlimited payroll, Cashman is a fantastic GM who will be almost impossible to replace. Same with Torre. And like the first time Steinbrenner tried this tactic, it will work in the short term. But the cupboard became bare from 1982 to 1990. Only Steinbrenner's suspension allowed the Yankee front office to rebuild their minor league system, and they reaped the rewards from 1995 to now. However, those players are getting old, and the more desperate Steinbrenner gets, the worse the future looks for the Yankees.

2004-02-18T03:54:00.000-08:00

Pitchers and Catchers
One of the greatest phrases in sports. As the season kicks off, and everyone keeps talking about the Yankee and Red Sox arms race, the three contenders in the AL West quietly go about their business. While Anaheim looks like the team to beat on paper, the A's and the Mariners aren't far behind. During spring training, I'll keep you up to date on any Mariner news, as well as profiling the key players you need to watch as your draft day approaches, starting off with starting pitching. Next week, check back for a look at the bullpen.

Overview
At first glance, there isn't that one arm that you can build your team around: No Hudson. No Pedro. No Johnson. But all 5 M's starters could round out your rotation, give you innnings, wins and ERA/WHIP. The Mariners were the only team where 5 players started all 162 games.

Safeco Field has been one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball; however, with the loss of Mike CAMERON, Jeff CIRILLO and Carlos GUILLEN, the defense (by far the best in the majors over the past two years) will suffer. While the rotations in Oakland and Chicago (Cubs) get all the media attention for having the best young staffs in the game, the Mariners aren't far behind, with Pineiro (age 25), Meche (25), Garcia (28) and Rafael SORIANO (24) waiting in the wings.

The Ancient Mariner: Jamie Moyer
21-7, 3.27 ERA, 129 K, 1.23 WHIP, 215 IP
Moyer was the most consistent pitcher last year, finishing 3rd in the majors in wins, and 9th in ERA. The biggest drawbacks are obvious: only 129 Ks, and the fact he's only 6 months younger than the manager (41). Still, he's been the model of consistency the 7 1/2 years he's been in Seattle, and is not a hard thrower. Rather, he's learned to pitch, and "outhinks" batters instead of overpowering them. Moyer will suffer from the worse defense, but it's reasonable to assume he will post similar stats this year. ESPN drafters have taken him 135, and is ranked as the 30th best pitcher, which is where he should be.

A world of potential: Joel Pineiro
16-11, 3.78 ERA, 151 K, 1.27 WHIP, 211 IP
Will the real Pineiro please stand up? In 10 starts between mid-June and July, Pineiro was outstanding, with 8 wins and 47 Ks. The rest of the year he was hit-or miss, but still a solid starter. He's only 25, and has shown the potential to win 20 games and strike out 200. Expect him to get better, but also be ready for the occasional shelling. If you were going to take one Mariner starter, Pineiro would be my pick. He's ranked as the 31st pitcher overall, and is being taken around 137. That's about right, but the potential is certainly there to outperform that position.

Risk or reward: Freddy Garcia
12-14, 4.51 ERA, 144 K, 1.33 WHIP, 201 IP
Garcia was perhaps the most frustrating starter in the AL last year. He had, simply put, a terrible season. The former Cy Young candidate is now a risky proposition for any owner. However, he had offseason surgery to correct an ear problem, which (the M's say), will correct some balance problems he was suffering from. Don't draft him too high, but he could be a nice sleeper. Time will tell. He has the stuff to win the Cy Young -- and is only 28 -- but it remains to be seen if his head is there. He's also the most likely starter to go in a trade. Drafted 170, and rated as the 35th best pitcher, I'd drop him down a notch. Go ahead and draft him, but have a backup plan.

Still a sleeper: Gil Meche
15-13, 4.59 ERA, 130 K, 1.34 WHIP, 186 IP
We fantasy players have short memories, don't we? Ranked as the 51st overall player, and drafted in only 50% of leagues so far, this guy is once again a great sleeper. Like I predicted at the beginning of last season, Meche tore out the gate, racking up a 10-5 record with a 3.60 ERA and 78 strikeouts before the all-star break. But because he hadn't pitched in 2 years (due to injury), the workload wore him out, and he tailed off in the second half (5-8 with an era over 5.00). Expect 15 wins, but a more consistent effort with a lower ERA and more Ks. Remember he is only 25, was considered one of Seattle's top prospects before his injury, and has learned how to pitch.

The weakest link: Ryan Franklin
11-13, 3.57 ERA, 99 K, 1.23 WHIP, 212 IP
Despite being among the top 10 in AL ERA, Franklin also allowed the most homers. He will suffer with a worse defense behind him, and he doesn't strike out many. As the 5th starter, Franklin also has phenom Rafael SORIANO breathing down his neck. Franklin will likely start the season as the 5th starter, but may not stay there. Still, at 31, he has some gas in the tank, and is a serviceable free agent replacement or spot starter on your team, and a good #3 or #4 starter in AL-only leagues.